South African motorists are facing a mixed bag in August 2025, with the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy announcing fuel price cuts for petrol but steep hikes for diesel and illuminating paraffin. The latest adjustments, effective from 6 August, reflect shifts in global oil markets and local exchange rate movements—directly impacting household budgets, transport costs, and business operations across the country.
Effective: Midnight on Wednesday, 6 August 2025, with adjustments confirmed by the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy and published via BusinessTech Stuff South Africa
1. Fuel Price Changes (DMRE)
- Petrol 93 RON: ↓ 28 c / l
- Petrol 95 RON: ↓ 28 c / l
- Diesel 500 ppm (0.05 %): ↑ 65 c / l
- Diesel 50 ppm (0.005 %): ↑ 63 c / l
- Illuminating paraffin: ↑ 32 c / l The South African
2. Pump Prices: Inland vs Coastal
| Fuel Type | July (Inland) | August (Inland) | July (Coastal) | August (Coastal) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petrol 93 RON | R 21.79 | R 21.51 | R 21.00 | R 20.72 |
| Petrol 95 RON | R 21.87 | R 21.59 | R 21.04 | R 20.76 |
| Diesel 500 ppm | R 19.35 | R 20.00 | R 18.52 | R 19.17 |
| Diesel 50 ppm | R 19.41 | R 20.04 | R 18.65 | R 19.28 |
| Illuminating paraffin | R 13.16 | R 13.48 | R 12.14 | R 12.46 |
These figures are from BusinessTech, based on official DMRE/CEF data.
3. Drivers Behind the Changes
- Petrol drop (−28 c): Reflects over‑recovery corrections, stable international oil prices, and a steady rand shaktihitech.co.in
- Diesel rise (+63–65 c): Driven by strong seasonal demand in the Northern Hemisphere and tight distillate supply.
- Paraffin increase (+32 c): Influenced by reactive retail margin adjustments and tightened supply.
4. Future Outlook: September 2025 Fuel Prices
Brent Crude & Exchange‑Rate Trends
- A recent Reuters poll projects Brent crude averaging US$67.84 / barrel for the remainder of 2025, with downward pressure expected from rising OPEC+ output (~548,000 bpd in August/September) and flat demand growth (~797 kbpd) reuters.com
- Morgan Stanley forecasts a decline to around US$60/bbl by early 2026 reuters.com.
- Goldman Sachs maintains a view of average Brent at US$64/bbl in Q4 2025, with downside risks tied to weak U.S. growth and tariffs despite ongoing geopolitical flare‑ups reuters.com.
Expected Fuel Impact (September 2025)
Based on these macro-trends—modestly lower oil prices, continued OPEC+ supply growth, and exchange‑rate stability—a September fuel update might look like this:
- Petrol (93/95 RON): Potential further decrease of 15–25 c / l, assuming the rand holds near R18/USD and Brent drifts lowerDiesel (50/500 ppm): Could see a rise of 30–45 c / l, driven by structural distillate tightness and seasonal shipping fuel demand.
In summary, September users may enjoy petrol relief, while diesel costs could continue to climb, adding further burden to transport-dependent sectors.
5. Implications & Take‑Away
- Petrol users may gain modest savings in September, especially coastal motorists.
- Diesel costs are unlikely to soften; businesses relying on diesel should anticipate higher input costs.
- Ongoing volatility in crude and rand may lead to mixed outcomes month to month.
- Strategic timing and fuel‑efficiency practices remain key. Businesses should plan for diesel‑driven inflation in logistics and operations.
6. Conclusion
- August brings mixed outcomes: petrol is down, diesel and paraffin up.
- For September 2025, reliable forecasts indicate further petrol decreases (15–25 c/l) coupled with diesel increases (30–45 c/l)—assuming stable exchange rates and Brent in the upper US$60s.
- These projections are grounded in credible market data—from OPEC+ output plans, to analyst consensus on Brent and supply‑demand dynamics.
