ShowMe South Africa

South African motorists have enjoyed some relief at the pumps this September as the Department of Petroleum and Mineral Resources announced across-the-board fuel price cuts. The adjustments, which have taken effect on Wednesday, 3 September 2025, follow a dip in international oil prices and a resilient rand. Although the Month of September is almost at its end, let’s have a look at what is affecting the Prices.

Key Fuel Price Adjustments

• Petrol 93: down 4 cents per litre

• Petrol 95: down 4 cents per litre

• Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): down 56 cents per litre

• Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): down 57 cents per litre

• Illuminating Paraffin (wholesale): down 37 cents per litre

• LPGAS: down R1.32/kg

• LPGAS (Saldanha WC): down R1.51/kg

What’s Driving the Decrease?

Global oil markets came under pressure in August as OPEC+ increased production, boosting supply, while weaker global demand and a softer growth outlook weighed on prices. Brent crude averaged $67.01 per barrel, down from $69.06.

The rand, meanwhile, showed unexpected strength despite the recent 30% US tariff on South African imports, trading in a narrow band between R17.50 and R17.80/$ throughout the month. This currency stability helped cushion local fuel prices.

Additionally, the global diesel shortage has eased, narrowing the recovery gap between petrol and diesel after July’s steep losses.

Official Pump Prices – September 2025

Inland (Gauteng & Highveld)

• 93 Petrol: R21.47/l (from R21.51)

• 95 Petrol: R21.55/l (from R21.59)

• Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): R19.44/l (from R20.00)

• Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): R19.47/l (from R20.04)

• Illuminating Paraffin: R13.10/l (from R13.47)

• LPGAS: R34.76/kg (from R36.08)

Coastal Regions

• 93 Petrol: R20.68/l (from R20.72)

• 95 Petrol: R20.72/l (from R20.76)

• Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): R18.61/l (from R19.17)

• Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): R18.71/l (from R19.28)

• Illuminating Paraffin: R12.09/l (from R12.46)

• LPGAS: R31.60/kg (from R32.92)

• LPGAS (Saldanha WC): R33.79/kg (from R35.30)

Slate Levy and Market Outlook

At the end of July, the cumulative slate balance for petrol and diesel stood at a positive R3.26 billion, meaning the slate levy remains at zero cents per litre for September.

While the cuts offer welcome relief, analysts warn that global market volatility — from OPEC+ output shifts to ongoing trade tensions — could influence local prices in the coming months.

Early Forecasts for October 2025 indicated that the prices might increase slightly. these are mid-month projections (from CEF, etc.), so they aren’t final — but they’re a good guide for what to expect.

⚠️ Factors That Could Alter These Projections

• Rand-Dollar Rate: The strength of the rand is helping limit price rises. If the rand weakens sharply, petrol prices could increase more than forecast. IOL

  As of 22 September 2025, 1 USD = R17.28.In the coming few days to weeks, models and analysts expect the rate to hover around R17.25-R17.35/USD

• Global Oil & Product Prices: Oil has been trading in a relatively tight range (~$65-$67/barrel), but any shock (geopolitical, supply disruption, etc.) could push that up. BusinessTech

• Under- or Over-recovery: Petrol is under-recovering currently (i.e. the Basic Fuel Price + other cost inputs are higher than what pump prices are covering), which tends to lead to increases. Diesel is over-recovering, which tends to lead to decreases. IO

✅ Likely Scenario

Putting this together, a plausible outcome for October is:

• Petrol (both 93 & 95) is going up, modestly.

• Diesel is seeing small drops (wholesale) or staying flat.

• Illuminating paraffin is also likely to decline slightly.

• Petrol price increases likely to hit hardest at inland zones (due to higher transport & logistics, and smaller rand-resilience buffer).