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South African Petrol Prices: Anticipating a Significant Drop in July

South African Petrol Prices

South African Petrol Prices Anticipating a Significant Drop in July, Motorists and Consumers can rejoice for the reprieve in the fuel prices ahead is set to go down once again.

South African motorists can look forward to a substantial R1.50 reduction in petrol prices next month as data from early June indicates a significant over-recovery in the market.

Recent figures from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) reveal that petrol prices are currently experiencing an over-recovery ranging between R1.47 and R1.52 per liter. Similarly, diesel prices are poised for a noteworthy cut of between 92 cents and R1.02 per liter.

Despite the rand’s depreciation post the 2024 national elections in late May, these over-recoveries suggest a potential positive shift if market conditions align favorably for South Africa.

Market sentiments are currently volatile due to the ANC’s inability to secure a clear path to a majority, leading to uncertainty regarding the country’s governance.

The ANC is now tasked with navigating negotiations with various opposition parties, both major and minor, to establish a Government of National Unity (GNU). However, this endeavor may present significant challenges.

Petrol prices are currently experiencing an over-recovery ranging between R1.47 and R1.52 per liter

Over the weekend, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), South Africa’s fourth-largest party, announced its decision not to participate in a GNU with the Democratic Alliance (DA) and other centrist parties. This move boosted the rand, as the EFF is perceived as having an anti-business stance that could disrupt stability.

The rand has remained relatively stable this week, hovering around R18.90 against the dollar. It has been close to breaching the R19.00/$ mark since the election results were announced, compared to its earlier trajectory towards R18.00/$.

A potential return to R18.00/$ would further enhance fuel over-recoveries, potentially leading to larger price cuts at fuel stations.

However, the primary factor contributing to fuel over-recoveries currently is the global oil price, which has dipped below $80 per barrel.

Bloomberg’s analysis suggests that oil markets are stabilizing after a recent drop, as traders await industry reports and the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates.

Despite OPEC+’s decision to increase oil supply from the third quarter, market uncertainties persist, driven by geopolitical tensions and global election outcomes in 2024. These factors continue to influence traders’ sentiments and price movements in the oil market.



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