March 2025 Fuel Price Forecast: What to Expect at the Pump
As March 2025 approaches, consumers can expect only modest adjustments in fuel prices. Mid-month data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) suggests that the anticipated petrol price hike is smaller than originally forecast, while diesel rates appear even more encouraging—with one variant possibly seeing a slight decrease at wholesale.
Key Mid-Month Projections
Based on CEF data up to February 14, 2025, the following price changes are anticipated for March:
- Petrol 93: Increase of 23 cents per litre
- Petrol 95: Increase of 10 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): Increase of 4 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): Decrease of 3 cents per litre
- Illuminating Paraffin: Increase of 16 cents per litre
Note: The CEF does not currently provide daily snapshot data for LP Gas, so March pricing for this fuel remains unavailable.
It’s important to remember that these CEF snapshots are not definitive. The final fuel price adjustments are announced by the Department of Petroleum and Mineral Resources just a few days before they take effect. Additionally, factors such as slate levy adjustments and retail margin changes may also influence the final pump prices.
Market Influences Behind the Changes
Fuel price adjustments are closely tied to two primary factors:
- The Rand/Dollar Exchange Rate:
In February 2025, the rand demonstrated notable resilience against the US dollar, trading at around R18.50—an improvement from over R19 in January. Although the currency has experienced some volatility (swinging between R18.30 and R18.60), this relative strength has contributed to an “over-recovery” in local fuel pricing of roughly 10 cents per litre. - International Oil Prices:
Global oil markets remain unpredictable. Despite concerns over oversupply—driven partly by lower demand from major consumers like China—oil prices have steadied at around $75 per barrel. Ongoing uncertainties, such as the impact of US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies and evolving geopolitical relationships, continue to weigh on market sentiment. Analysts note that these global factors have led to an “under-recovery” ranging between 7 and 32 cents per litre.
Fuel prices are adjusted on the first Wednesday of every month, making these dynamics particularly relevant for the March review.
Understanding Rand Resilience
The rand’s performance in February has played a significant role in shaping fuel price recoveries. Despite turbulent market conditions influenced by international political moves, the currency has remained relatively firm. This resilience not only cushions local fuel prices but also creates an environment where even a slight improvement in the exchange rate can help moderate increases at the pump.
Oil Price Uncertainty and Its Impact
Oil markets are currently in a state of flux due to several factors:
- Tariff Policies: US tariffs targeting key trading partners have added to market uncertainty, even as some of these measures are held in reserve for future negotiations.
- Geopolitical Dynamics: Closer ties between the US and Russia, along with the evolving situation in Ukraine, have raised questions about the future easing of sanctions—potentially increasing oil supply in a market already brimming with excess.
These global factors, combined with the steady performance of Brent crude at around $75 per barrel, are influencing the overall trajectory of fuel prices this March.
How Price Changes Will Reflect at the Pumps
While wholesale figures can differ from retail prices, here’s a look at the expected adjustments for inland and coastal regions:
Inland Prices
| Fuel Type | February Official | March Expected |
|---|---|---|
| 93 Petrol | R22.16 | R22.39 |
| 95 Petrol | R22.41 | R22.51 |
| Diesel 0.05% (wholesale) | R20.34 | R20.38 |
| Diesel 0.005% (wholesale) | R20.45 | R20.42 |
| Illuminating Paraffin | R14.23 | R14.39 |
Coastal Prices
| Fuel Type | February Official | March Expected |
|---|---|---|
| 93 Petrol | R21.37 | R21.60 |
| 95 Petrol | R21.62 | R21.72 |
| Diesel 0.05% (wholesale) | R19.55 | R19.59 |
| Diesel 0.005% (wholesale) | R19.69 | R19.66 |
| Illuminating Paraffin | R13.23 | R13.39 |
Note: Diesel pump prices may differ from these wholesale figures.
Final Thoughts
The March 2025 fuel price adjustments underscore the complexity of balancing domestic economic factors with volatile global market trends. While petrol is set for a modest increase, diesel shows potential for minimal adjustments—even a slight decrease in one variant at wholesale levels. As the final announcements from the Department of Petroleum and Mineral Resources approach, staying informed about these key market drivers will be essential for consumers and industry stakeholders alike.
Sourced from: BT
